New Perspective And Challenges
The process of globalization has
enunciated rapid and sustained economic growth in the global economies,
leading to major structural and policy changes. These process of changes
is having direct major impact on all the sectors of the economy, particularly
the energy Sector,world wide.
Economic development has been associated
world wide increased use of energy and the consequent increase in productivity.
The oil shock of the seventies,the technology upgradations for improved
efficiencies have led to the lowering of the share of oil in the world
energy mix. Further, natural gas is gaining importance as an attractive
alternative to the relatively scarce Oil and its global availability is
expected to increase considerably in the future. Moreover, environmental
and safety concern have highlighted the attraction of natural gas
over coal and unclear power.
In the global scenario currently
Natural Gas represents 11% of the energy consumption in the Asia-Pacific
region as against 24% in the United States of America. In India, the natural
gas is emerging as the important source of energy accounting of 8% of the
fuel demands. However,the Asia-Pacific region is projected to show the
highest growth rates in energy demand in the coming years, primarily due
to rising demand in China and India. This region is heavily dependent on
hydrocarbons as source of energy. Against a total world gas reserves estimated
at 142 trillion cubic Meters(TCM), the Asia-Pacific region has only 7%
of this reserves with roughly 60% of the world's population in the region.
Thus, in the long run,this region would emerge as the net important of
Natural Gas.
In India, Natural Gas is relatively
a new entrant to the Energy Sector. The first major discovery of South
Bassin Gas Fields in the Mumbai Offshore region, facilitated efforts to
augment the production of non-associated gas in the country. Earlier most
of the production was associated gas,and its use largely localized or flared/re-injected.
Setting up of Gas Authority of India
Limited is 1984 as a public sector to handle all mid-stream(pipeline,transportation
and ancillary functions) and down-steam(gas processing and utilization),
marked the beginning of a concerted effort to develop Natural Gas as a
important source of Energy in India. Today the total Natural Gas production
profile in India is as below:
| Gas Production |
31.6 BCM |
| Captive consumption |
7.6BCM |
| Net availability |
24.0 BCM |
|
The Pipeline infrastructure extends
to around 3900 kms. network covering various states which includes the
1700 km. HBJ high pressure cross country pipeline of GAIL . In the Gas
processing and utilization, LPG though represents a small fraction of the
total refined products in India but its consumption has rapidly expanded.Domestic
consumption account for 93% and balance 7% for Industrial and Commercial
consumption. Today the production of LPG in the Country is around 4.7 million
tones living a huge demand supply gap of approximately 4.5 million tonnes.
However, following fundamental forces
are expected to re-shape the Indian Natural Gas industry in the millennium.
-
Energy requirement.
-
Environmental Legislation.
-
Policy and Structural changes.
The resultant importance of Natural
Gas,will see major changes in terms of
Emergence of competition in
the gas sector.
Emergence of Gas Regulatory
body.
Significantly higher investments
in sourcing and marketing of natural gas.
The above changes will transform
the Indian Natural Gas industry into a dynamic and competitive business
environment. The current scenario of the Industry dominated by the state
owned companies will get transformed into a scenario with both private
and public sector players and competition in all segments of the gas value
chain i.e. right from sourcing, transmission, distribution and marketing
upto utilization.
In fact, with the announcement by
the Govt. of India of the New Exploration Licensing Policy in March 1996,the
process to open up to Hydrocarbon Sector to Private Investment started.
The major thrust area for the Natural
Gas Industry in the coming years would be on Sourcing as demand for natural
gas all over the world increases, supplies in India are expected to fall
short of registered demand. The demand and supply gap in India is projected
to increase from 85 MMSCMD in 2000 AD to around 125 MMSCMD by 2010 AD,
in spite of large gas supply additions during this period.
The emphasis on sourcing of Natural
Gas will see:
Enhancement of Indigenous
gas production through higher investment and covering the current discoverable
reserves into established reserves.
Important of Natural Gas either
through trans-national pipelines or in the form of LPG.
Setting up of LNG import facilities
on the West/East coast.
Enhancement in efforts on
Coal Bed Methane (CBM) with an estimated potential between 30 to 144 TCF
based on 13 major coal fields in India. In fact, there are plans to offer
12 blocks for exploration and production of CBM.
Enhancement of efforts on
Gas Hydrates. In India vast areas on the east and west coasts provide very
favourable conditions for the existence of Natural gas hydrates,. As indicated,the
total amount of methane in gas hydrate around the world is likely to have
resources of the order of 510 TCM of methane gas, which is more than 2.5
times the present discovered resources of Natural Gas.
The other business segment in the
Gas-value chain, viz. Transmission, distribution and marketing will see
development of extensive Pipeline network and possibly integrated into
a National Gas Grid, depending upon the development of gas market.
In Natural Gas processing and utilization
according to the Planning Commission estimates, use of LPG as cooking and
Industrial fuel will still dominate and account of approximately 90% of
the total market in a next few years. Annual LPG Production is expected
to grow by 14.2% from the current production of 4.79 million tones. With
the liberalization and removal of Govt. subsidies and APM pricing more
projects will come up to take advantage of the growing market.
Power generation, where the share
of Natural Gas world wide is around 16% in 1995 is expected to rise to
23% by 2015 AD.Similarly in India, with the demand for electricity rising
at a very fast pace, Natural Gas will be emerging as a major fuel for Electricity
generation. Currently there is huge demand and supply gap in India with
peak shortage of around 18.5% and Energy shortage is around 9.2%.The majority
of new Power Generation in the long run will come from either coal or from
liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The other utility area where Natural Gas will
be a major feed stock is Petrochemiclas. In the emerging Petrochemical
market with a growth rate of over 15-18% annually which is almost 3 times
of GDP will provide a good market for Natural Gas.
In above context, there is undoubtedly,
new perspective to Natural Gas, as an alternate source of energy and lies
ahead great challenges in the coming years. In India, the Natural Gas sector
is poised for a growth and will see the current scenario converting into
a competitive business environment. The Indian Public sector grants ONGC,
OIL and GAIL in the upstream sector is faced with great opportunities
and threats in the expected scenario. The answer to these opportunities
and threats is consolidation, expansion and diversification on the
Gas value chain based on long term strategic plan and supplementing
the process through re-structuring within. |