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INDIA’S EXPORT SCENARIO:
A PERSPECTIVE
Economic growth is linked with a
rapid export growth. In fact, all fast-growing economies of the developing
world are also export success stories. In an open economy framework, the
strategy for development is increasingly focusing on export-led growth
through optimal utilization of our comparative advantage vis-à-vis
the rest of the world. Progressive export orientation of the economy would
not only yield efficiency in resource utilization but also to other benefits,
which have often been overlooked. Because of expanding domestic market
beyond national borders it would enhance and maintain the rate of return
on productive investment and raise the rates of domestic savings and investment
essential for rapid growth. It would also impart resilience to the economy
to successfully overcome external shocks. In the last 15 years, i.e., from
1985-86 to 2000-01, the contribution of exports to the GDP has increased
from a level of 3.92 per cent to 10.1 per cent. The increase in the country’s
export earnings has been used to finance growing imports. It also implies
that the dependence on other sources of foreign exchange to finance imports
has declined during the period.
Global Trade Performance
The global output increased only
marginally and world trade decreased in sharp contrast to the preceding
year when both trade and output expanded at record rate. The value of world
merchandise export shrank by 4 per cent to US $ 6.2 trillion in 2001. This
was the largest annual decrease recorded since 1982. The main reasons of
weakening in global economic activity were the almost simultaneous slow
down in three major economies-USA, EU and Japan from the third quarter
of 2000 onwards and the September 11, 2001 events in USA.
Within Asia, India and China are
the only two leading exporters of merchandise trade that registered an
export growth of 4 per cent and 7 per cent respectively in 2001 over the
previous year. India’s merchandise export share in world export has increased
from 0.41 per cent in 1992-93 to 0.6 per cent in 1998-99 and to 0.7 per
cent in 2001.
As per the dis-aggregated data provided
by DGCI&S for major heads of export for the period April-March, 2001-02,
some of the items of exports have registered a positive growth in terms
of dollar. These items are - sugar and molasses (237.88 per cent), processed
food (6.28 per cent), plastic and linoleum products (6.06 per cent), electronics
(10.22 per cent), petroleum products (12.31 per cent), wheat (206.97 per
cent), engineering Goods (0.08 per cent), agri and allied (4.24 per cent),
ores and minerals (4.97 per cent) and chemicals and related (1.97 per cent).
Exports during April-May, 2002-2003
are valued at US $ 7449.68 million which is 10.46 per cent higher than
the level of US $ 6744.25 million during April-May, 2001-2002.
Export Strategy, 2002-07
With a view to sustaining the country’s
export growth, a Medium Term Export Strategy (MTES) was announced this
year. The Medium Term Export Strategy gives a road map for the export sector.
With the help of macro and sector-wise strategies, it would work towards
increasing India’s share of merchandise exports to 1 per cent of world
exports by 2006-07. The export projections show that India needs to achieve
11.9 per cent Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the exports for the
next five years, i.e. 2002-2007, to reach 1 per cent of world exports.
While the existing scheme of the Ministry of Commerce have been further
strengthened, new schemes like Market Access Initiative (MAI) and Assistance
to States for Infrastructure Development for Exports (ASIDE) have also
been launched recently.
Achievements
For the first time a conscious effort
has been made to involve the States in the export effort of the nation.
A prestigious scheme called Assistance to States for Infrastructure Development
for Exports (ASIDE) was launched in March 2002. Rs. 725 crore has been
allocated for the Scheme. Of this 80 per cent will go the States. Half
of the allocations will be based on export performance and the rest on
growth in exports so as to take care of the concerns of both the developed
and the less developed States.
In 14 States 28 agricultural export
zones have been approved involving an investment of Rs. 781 crore. The
contribution of private parties will be to the extent of Rs. 444 crore,
the balance being contributed by the Central Government, its agencies and
the State Governments. The projected exports from these zones by the end
of the Tenth Plan will be of the order of Rs. 4,000 crore.
Quantitative restrictions on export
of wheat and rice products, rice, coarse grains, butter and packaging restrictions
on pulses have been removed. The ceiling on onion exports has been enhanced.
Agricultural exports excluding marine, tea, coffee, cotton and castor oil
which were at Rs. 16,673 crore during 200-01 have increased to Rs. 18,667
crore during the year 2001-02 thereby showing an increase of Rs. 1,894
crore.
The ambitious scheme, MAI, launched
on September 19, 2001 has substituted the existing instruments for neutralizing
handicaps of domestic exporters by those compatible with the WTO regime.
The scheme identifies priorities for research studies and provides funding
support for implementing the recommendations. A large outlay of Rs. 552
crore is assigned for this scheme in the Tenth Plan. Last year, 34 projects
were approved including 29 market studies. Items of assistance included
setting up a facilitation centre in the Netherlands for export of cut flowers,
transport assistance for coffee, mango promotion programme, organizing
India Soft to showcase our IT services and software capabilities.
Quantitative restrictions on
export of wheat and rice products, rice,
coarse grains, butter and packaging
restrictions on pulses have been
removed. The ceiling on onion exports
has been enhanced.
Agricultural exports excluding marine,
tea, coffee, cotton and castor oil
which were at Rs.16,673 crore during
2000-01 have increased to Rs.18,667
crore during the year 2001-02 thereby
showing an increase of Rs.1,894 crore.
The added features for Special Economic
Zones (SEZs) like setting up of Offshore Banking Units (OBUs) are exempted
from CRR and SLR. It would give access to SEZ units and SEZ developers
to international finances at international rates. The Scheme has given
leadership role to the State governments in identifying locations and private
sector partners for developing these zones. So far 13 zones have been approved
and these are at various stages of implementation. The Maharashtra, Karnataka,
Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat governments have also announced their State
SEZ Policy. These SEZs are expected to be the laboratories for testing
economic policies that are expected to contribute substantially to the
export growth.
The new "Focus: Africa" programme
launched on March 31, 2002 seeks to increase the two -way trade between
India and countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially Ghana, Nigeria, South
Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Mauritius. The Government has allocated
Rs. 2 crore during the current year (2002-2003) for export promotion activities
under "Focus: Africa" programme.
The India-Nepal Trade Treaty was
renewed for five years with effect from March 2002. In the revised Treaty,
the concerns of the Indian industry due to the surge in Nepalese imports
during 1996-2001 have been adequately addressed. The revised Treaty has
been welcomed by trade and industry in both countries.
The year 2001 was not particularly
good for exports mainly on account of recession besetting the world economy
and September 11 events. The country’s loss of exports to USA, the largest
buyer, was perceptible. The neighbours also fared poorly. The growth rate
of exports of Japan was (-) 16 per cent, Taiwan (-) 17per cent, Malaysia
(-) 10 per cent and Thailand (-) 7 per cent against India’s 4 per cent.
The Government, however, intervened proactively to promote exports even
in this situation of overall decline in world trade with a package, which
includes reduction in pre-shipment and post-shipment credit by 1 per cent
besides improvements in the duty drawback entitlements. A special financial
package has also been announced for large manufacturer exporters in select
sectors and extension of period for repatriation of export proceeds from
180 days to 365 days to the exporters. This package helped the country
in retaining its market share even in extremely adverse circumstances.
On the multilateral trade front,
the WTO Ministerial Conference at Doha was an important landmark. With
the cooperation of the concerned Ministries, India’s position on various
issues was formulated and put forward firmly and decisively. The results
have been quite satisfactory for India and other developing countries.
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